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Making sense of its delay and consequences

Maqsood Maniyar | NT

Bengaluru: The delay in conducting India’s 16th decennial census due to the pandemic has elicited impatience from some and criticism from others, as the exercise may get pushed past the May 2024 general elections. Critics, not just from political circles, have wondered aloud what the Centre has to hide in terms of performance.

The Union government had made clear its intention to conduct the census in its March 2019 notification. Originally, the first phase of the census was supposed to be conducted from April to September 2020 (counting of dwellings), followed by the second phase (counting of the population), which would have enabled the initial findings to be released by June 2021.

However, Covid threw a wrench into that wheel. An essential pre-condition to conducting the census is to recognise jurisdictional limits such as cities, towns, villages, districts and lastly census towns. This exercise was postponed first to the end of 2020, and then to 2021 followed by three more delays.

The most recent notice from the Registrar General of India (RGI) under the Union Home Ministry has pushed the exercise to late June 2023. The Covid vaccination drive has also been cited as a reason for the delays.

Anywhere between 10 months to a year is required for the census to be conducted competently in the secondmost populous country in the world. The next general elections slated to be held in May 2024 may take precedence over the census, pushing it further back. Going by that estimation, the census data may be out by mid-2025, making it a four-year delay.

The US, UK, China and India’s South Asia on the other hand have surged ahead and conducted the census after the pandemic, published the data and are breaking it down even now. Efficient and reliable digital techniques might yet be pursued.

Why is the exercise important?

The census is critical because it will be dependable data on the increase in population, number of families and distribution of literacy, age, fertility and migration to and from cities. Besides, census data provides context on development, particularly, hits and misses as far as policy decisions are concerned. It has also produced numerous doctorates.

Although income data come under the ambit of the National Statistical Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI), the census can throw light on it, employment and other economic indicators. The delay in the census is consequential to policy decisions and the delivery of services to the commoner. Let us start with something as basic as food security, a recognised human right.

The National Food Security Act (NFSA) covers 75 percent of rural and half of all urban households. However, the Union government recently used the antiquated 2011 census date to make NFSA entitlement free for 81 crore people. By estimates, the population is supposed to have grown by 10 crores.

This compromises the food security of an inordinate amount of households, especially children since malnutrition is an ever-lurking menace. Another issue is migration numbers. In this country, a migrant is someone who seeks employment in a place where they were not born. The first Covidinduced lockdown caused a sea of humanity to march back to their hometowns on foot, resulting in deaths caused by fatigue.

We also need data on seasonal migrants. Traders and workers from Kashmir valley move down south to bigger and warmer cities for the winter. Is there large-scale reverse migration from cities to villages? How many working-class youths who’ve lost their jobs in urban centres have taken to subsistence agriculture?

Moreover, the census can lay bare the impact or lack thereof of schemes such as Ayushman Bharat Scheme (universal health care), Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (housing), Swacch Bharat Abhiyan (including but not limited to the building of toilets), among other initiatives.

What impact have other policy decisions had? Abrogation of Article 35 A in Jammu and Kashmir paved the way for outsiders to buy land in the new union territories, smart cities plan, decriminalisation of homosexuality and over a billion people acquiring Aadhaar cards, which is often enforced.

Lastly, National Social Assistance Programme, mainly pensions for retired persons, could fall short of its target since fresh census data is not available. If it was, budgetary requirements would have been revised accordingly.

Independent data body way ahead?

The 2001 Rangarajan Commission report suggested the setting up of a permanent commission on statistics, answerable to parliament as opposed to the Union government. This has not yet come to pass.

This body namely