Stakes High for three Principal Rivals in Tripura

Keen triangular contest is on cards for the election to the 60-seat Assembly of Tripura to be held on February 16. A new challenge stares in the face of the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) this time. It will be facing candidates from the newly formed regional party Tipra Motha in as many as 40 seats even while being challenged by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) which has entered into an alliance with the Congress.

Long ruled by the CPI(M), the state had dislodged them in favour of the saffron party which had grabbed 32 of the 60 seats in 2018 elections. Though it won a majority, victory was far from convincing for the BJP. The BJP polled 43.59% while the main rival CPI(M) was not much behind with 42.29 %. However, CPI(M) could garner just 16 seats and came a distant second in seat tally.

Former opponents, the Congress and the CPI(M) have now entered into an alliance and can pose formidable challenge for the BJP. Besides them, Tipra Motha, a party championing the cause of the indigenous people (tribes) of Tripura and demanding creation of Greater Tipraland, is all likely to make a dent in the BJP’s tribal votes where it could make deep forays with the help of then regional ally Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT).

IPFT had secured eight seats in 2018 but went soft on its main plank during the last five year and thus lost its political capital almost entirely. Having given up its demand for Tipraland, the IPFT has now disintegrated and all its 8 MLAs have joined other opposition parties. Tipra Motha which is led by its founder Pradyot Bikram Manikya Debbrama, a scion of the former ruling family, is a strong contender in 22 ST reserved seats.

Its recent success in the Tripura Autonomous District Tribal Council poll in 2021--when it grabbed a majority of seats--is quite unsettling for the ruling BJP. Besides, the alliance between the CPI(M) and Congress too could upset the BJP applecart. Feeling insecure and facing charges of non-performance, the BJP had replaced chief minister Biplab Das with Manik Saha nine months before the election.

The party has faced constant defections during the last two years. Congress fortunes look upswing. It polled 25.3% votes in 2019 General Election, up from 1.8% it received in the 2018 polls. Stridency notwithstanding, Tipraland demand has few takers. In a state with preponderant Bengalispeaking population (60%), the demand for a Tribal state, does not find much rationale in larger sections of people outside the tribal belt. The BJP carries the huge burden of incumbency.

The State government was under constant fire for attack on offices of the rival political parties, setting ablaze of a news channel office and attack on Tripura Congress Party president Birajit Sinha which have smudged the ruling party’s copybook. Being the first among the three north-eastern states going to polls in February, the stakes are high for all the three principal contestants and pose nightmarish dilemmas for poll pundits.