Another coalition in the offing?

Is Karnataka all set to usher in another coalition government in a couple of months from now? Some in the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party seem pretty sure that this is the only possibility considering the way political trends in the state are evolving. And there is already talk of tying up with Deve Gowda’s party if it wins 20-25 seats which seems to be a pretty significant number if neither of the national parties get a simple majority in the 224-member House.

Karnataka is not new to coalition politics-seventeen years ago, the Janata Dal(S) and BJP had struck a 20-20 month power sharing pact in 2006 with HD Kumaraswamy becoming CM of the coalition ousting Dharam Singh but the experiment did not last more than 20 months with HDK refusing to hand over power to the BJP. The rest is history with BS Yediyurappa of the BJP sweeping to power in 2008 riding the ‘betrayal’ wave.

The next coalition the state saw was in 2018 when no party could secure a clear majority in the Assembly with the BJP emerging as the largest outfit but falling short of the numbers to form a government on its own. The unlikeliest of allies, the Congress and JD(S), which had for decades been fighting for the same vote base in the Old Mysore region, came together after a lot of heartburn and Kumaraswamy was once again CM.

But then, old enmities do not die out so easily and so it was a never-ending battle between HDK and his bete noire, former CM Siddaramaiah over every contentious issue the coalition had to handle. Soon came the breakup in 2019, aided in ample measure by the machinations of the BJP which weaned away MLAs of the Congress and JD(S) to bring down the coalition and form a government on its own. Most pre-poll surveys have pointed to the possibility of the Congress returning to power with more than 100 seats but the big question is whether the Grand Old Party will cross the magical 113 seat mark.

This will require a herculean effort and a closing of ranks by Congressmen ahead of the polls to present a wall of unity against the BJP but considering the never-ending tussle between state Congress chief DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah for the top post, things do not look as hunky-dory as they should. That brings up the vexed question of whether the Congress will once again cosy up to the JD(S) in its quest for power to deprive the BJP of its southern citadel, after the bitter experiences of the past? Many Congressmen dismiss the possibility of this happening asserting they are sure to get a clear majority and will not need support from any quarter.

Coalitions do have their advantages as decisions are more broad-based and also ensure more responsible governance. The demands of different crosssections of the population are inevitably brought to the notice of the government and met but then there is also a strong possibility of decisions being delayed because of the lack of consensus. And if parties with diametrically opposite ideologies are forced to come together only to keep a rival out of power, the sacrifices they have to make far outweigh the advantages that accrue while in governance.

A stable government is what most Kannadigas will be hoping for as the day to exercise their franchise draws near; but that demands a strong and decisive wave in favour of a leader or a single political party. Whether that will happen in the next two months as the political scene warms up and poll campaigns grip the state, remains to be seen.