Europe’s War Enters The Second Year

The Russia-Ukraine war enters the second year on February 24. For all practical purposes, the war looks unwinnable for Russia and given the unstinted support from Europe and the NATO, Ukraine has stood admirably well against the challenge from the Russians who are all but pursuing the dreams of Soviet era greatness.

The year-long war has killed over a lakh people including troops from both countries, displaced nearly a third of the people of Ukraine, destroyed almost the entire civic infrastructure, city centres and apartment buildings in cities. But the nation is far from defeated. In the very first month, the Ukrainians thwarted the Russian intention of capturing Kiev and redirected their forces to secure Donbas region to which they lay claim on the basis of demographic dominance of ethnic Russians. The Ukrainians have repeatedly blunted the Russian advances on multiple fronts and have often inflicted bloodier reprisals.

The current conflict is the first f ull-fledged war on European soil since the end of the Second World War and has certainly denied the Russians their intended out come of reviving the Sovietera Grand Russia. With NATO resolutely standing behind the Ukraine with arms, training and aid, the war is almost turning into a frozen conflict with none of the sides willing to budge. For NATO it is a ‘now or never’ moment as collapse of Ukraine is all likely to revive the eyeball to eyeball confrontation with the Russians. Arrival of the United States’ President Joe Biden at Kiev two days before the war’s first anniversary, further reinforces the NATO resolve to take back Europe to Cold War days.

The war currently stands at a stage where Russia can be seen depending on its unlimited reserves and Ukraine needing full scale support from NATO to remain resilient. The herald of the second year will be watched curiously for new Russian offensives and Ukrainian counter-offensives as winter fades away into spring. So far the Western sanctions have failed to hurt Russia enough to dissuade from escalating the violent offensives.

Similar would be the keenness to watch how and how long the sanctioning nations hold together in the face of economic difficulties it evokes. Economic cost of denial of Russian gas to industry in the western Europe will continue to escalate. Protracted wars tend to favour the larger side. Given this scenario, Ukraine will require superior will to fight and the Western world, especially the United States, to stand by with material support.

This would involve safeguarding the supply lines of Western military equipment from Russian missile and drone attack critical to continuing the support Ukrainian forces need to counter Russia’s military aggression. Last week’s suspension of a key US—Russia nuclear treaty by the Russians is a clear casualty of the war and a new threat to peace. The war has also rendered the role of the United Nations debatable as the body has been largely marginalized yielding place to the coterie of developed nations.