Roles reversed, BJP on defensive

As the campaign to win the hearts and minds of Kannadigas gets into full steam with just ten days left for the trip to the polling booth, one cannot help but take a trip down memory lane to April-May, 2018 when PM Narendra Modi had launched a full-fledged blitzkrieg against the then Congress government led by Siddaramaiah.

The PM had dubbed Siddu’s government a ‘10 per cent’ commission government and had taken potshots at the Congress for the murders of pro-Hindutva activists in Karnataka while not forgetting to pummel the then CM for fighting from two seats – Badami and Chamundeshwari.

Siddaramaiah eventually lost from Chamundeshwari and the BJP emerged as the largest party managing to seize power after engineering defections from the Congress and JD(S) a year later in 2019. Now the boot is on the other foot with the BJP facing a resurgent Congress with most poll surveys indicating that the Grand Old Party is likely to emerge as the victor in this election.

Much water has flowed down the Cauvery in the past five years with an ageing Yediyurappa, who led the saffron poll machine from the front in 2018, now a mere shadow of his original self, and retiring from electoral politics. The Lingayat support base of the BJP has become shaky after the exit of top-notch leaders like Jagadish Shettar and Lakshman Savadi, both of whom joined the Congress, denting saffron hopes in the Hubballi-Dharwad-Belagavi belt. The Congress has taken the fight to the BJP, while hurling a ‘40 per cent’ commission charge at the saffronists and blaming it for ineffectual governance.

The suicide of a contractor, who blamed a senior minister for the failure to pay his project dues, an alleged sex scam involving another minister and constant pinpricks delivered by dissidents who failed to secure cabinet berths, have added to the BJP’s woes. So the state BJP leaders led by CM Bommai have fallen back on PM Modi to restore their fast depleting hopes of returning to power. On Saturday, Modi seemed enthused on seeing huge crowds that lined up on the five-km stretch of Nice Road in Bengaluru to cheer him.

The thunderous reception he received may have sent a flutter down Congress hearts but do crowds convert into votes? Most of them seemed to be hardcore BJP supporters but what are the common man’s thoughts as the polls draw near? Is the Modi magic as strong as it was five years ago or have the reported misdemeanours of the BJP government in the state taken it to a point of no return? In 2018, the BJP, aided by a powerful push from central leaders led by the PM and the inability of the Congress to put up a strong show, managed to cross the 100-seat mark but yet fell short by around 10 seats.

This time, it is facing huge anti-incumbency and corruption allegations besides the charge that not enough has been done to firm up infrastructure in the capital city, Bengaluru. The fact that the party has a Lingayat leader as the CM face could help it garner support of the majority community but will that be enough to see it past the magic mark of 113 in the 224 seat Assembly? Not that all is hunky-dory for the Congress.

And with the PM set to address many more meetings across the state in the coming days, a change in the mood of the electorate cannot be ruled out. But saddled with an ineffective state leadership, and with corruption charges hanging like an albatross around its neck, the BJP seems to be on a weaker footing compared to 2018 – provided of course the leadership tussle in the Congress does not wreck its chances of seizing the southern citadel of the saffronists.