If exits prove right, BJP will lose its southern bastion

While counting day is still a full two days away, results of the many exit polls on Wednesday claim that the Congress will emerge as the single largest party in the Karnataka Assembly polls with 100-130 seats, with the BJP, the ruling party in the state, stuck at 80-90.

Exit polls have proved wrong in the past but assuming that they have got it right this time, Karnataka has decisively voted against the BJP, which had garnered a full 104 seats in the 2018 polls. A drop of as many as 30 seats is something that does not happen just like that.

It would be a bit naive to jump to definite conclusions based on exits, which survey a miniscule proportion of voters but then even pre-poll surveys had pointed to a clear setback for the BJP. This despite the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi devoted himself fully to the cause of the Karnataka BJP, taking out umpteen roadshows, addressing rallies in every nook and corner of the state and making personal appeals to voters to back his party. And if his efforts and charisma fail to bear fruit on May 13, there are many reasons for it.

One prime factor was the ineffective leadership in the state with CM Bommai who replaced the ageing BS Yediyurappa in 2021, proving no match for his predecessor – or for the likes of Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar of the Congress.

Deep-rooted corruption, which gnawed away at the state’s vitals, forced even the Contractors Association to cry foul that they were being forced to cough out 40 per cent commission for state projects. The ruling party failed to present a united front with ministers sledging it out in public, hardly concerned about the impact it would have on the party’s image.

The suicide of a contractor, who blamed a senior minister for his plight, and the many scams that hit the public domain, did no good to the saffronists’ prospects in the run-up to the polls. It is amply evident from the exit poll results that the sustained Congress campaign on alleged corruption in government departments has influenced the voting choices of Karnataka’s enlightened electorate.

The failure to rise to the expectations of the urban populace in the IT City of Bengaluru also seems to have taken a toll on the BJP prospects. The devastating rains last year and the lame-duck excuses given by the government even as city residents struggled to overcome flood woes are thing still fresh in public memory. And when Bengaluru complains, the ripples are felt across the state and the country – something the BJP leadership did not seem to realise till it was too late.

So if the Congress runs away with the mandate in Bengaluru when the results are announced on May 13, it would be hardly surprising.

The exit polls also prove that attempts to polarise voters along caste and religious lines by shifting quotas and harping on sensitive issues, have not clicked. Rising prices, unemployment, power and water supply and transport facilities are what the common man is most concerned about, and the failure to address them to their satisfaction, seem to have impacted the BJP.

Most exit polls also point to the depleting fortunes of the JD(S), led by Deve Gowda and son Kumaraswamy that had bagged an appreciable 37 seats in the 2018 elections. Loss of the JD(S) could be the Congress’ gain, particularly in the Old Mysuru region. Questions are surely going to be asked about the future of the JD(S) if it fails to become ‘king’ or even play the role of ‘kingmaker’ in a fractured scenario.

And what if the results point to a ‘hung’ Assembly as some pollsters have predicted? This is a question best left to the realm of speculation as Karnataka waits with bated breath for the verdict its people have delivered.