Putin Emerges Weakened from the Mutiny

The mutiny headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner fighters has left the Putin regime in Russia shaken. This has been the most critical challenge he has faced since he strengthened his stranglehold over Russia 24 years ago.

Rebel leader Prigozhin has been given amnesty on offer of accepting an exile in Belarus. Though Putin regime has fought off the challenge posed by this former close associate of his, the regime he heads has exposed its weaknesses on two fronts.

Firstly, Russian forces were knocking at the doors of Kyiv six months ago. But now he had to defend Moscow. The apparent ease with which mercenaries headed by Prigozhin took control of two southern cities including Rostov-on-Don and the way the rebel leader negotiated his exit and amnesty bear the telltale testimony to Putin’s loosening grip over the regime.

Thirdly, the larger question as to what would happen to Wagner’s men, is still not clear. Putin has emerged from the crisis with bruises on his nose.

He may not be facing any imminent threat, but the ‘betrayal’ by a close associate only point to the deep fissures Kremlin will have to grapple with in coming days.

While Moscow was caught off guard with the marching columns of Wagner’s mercenary force, the United States had sniffed the churning early last week as Prigozhin’s forces were amassing weapons, ammunition and other equipment near the border with Russia.

Failure in attaining the intended outcome in Ukraine had led to deterioration of ties between Prigozhin and the Russian Defence establishment during recent months.

The June 10 fiat by the Russian Defence Ministry asking all volunteer detachments to sign contracts with the Government had provided the immediate trigger for ties to worsen. Prigozhin and Wagner had interpreted it as takeover of mercenary troops.

The mutiny has exposed to the world much of the behind-thecurtain machinations in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Wagner, a private military company, had a large role to play in Ukraine, especially in the Donbas region, and much of their losses in terms of men and material did not figure in the official toll of deaths and damages suffered by the Russian forces.

Though the Russian law prohibits private military companies, Prigozhin’s proximity with Putin had eased the legal hassles all this while. He had been allowed to recruit convicts from Russian prisons in lieu of liberty.

And it was not the first time that the private military from Russia operated in a war. The Wagner troops had earlier had a role to play in Syria, Mali, Libya and the Central African Republic. The troops had faced serious charges of violation of human rights in several of these places, but without facing any consequences.

The company has even business interests in Africa where it runs huge mining enterprises raking vast profits. The overarching powers that Prigozhin and Wagner came to acquire and enjoy with tacit approval from Putin, also led to cracks within the Defence establishment.

The Defence Minister Sergei Shogu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov were critical of the role he was able to play and the easy access to Putin’s ears thereby deepening the differences between the state Defence apparatus and the gigantic private establishment Prigozhin represented.

The mutiny in Russia only highlights the dangers states can anticipate in encouraging non-state actors in a territory that deserves and demands firm control and regulation by the legitimate authority that the State represents.