JD(S) downfall at best delayed with BJP tie-up?

Maqsood Maniyar | NT

Bengaluru: Social scientists have concluded that the JD(S) alliance with the BJP for the Lok Sabha elections has at best delayed the regional outfit’s demise or guaranteed their downfall in the short term.

Professor Narayana A from the school of policy and governance at Azim Premji University said that if things play out well for the JD(S), they might gain an electoral advantage in the short term, referring to next year’s general elections.

“There are two ways of looking at it. One is from the limited point of view of the 2024 elections. Another is what would be larger implications of this (alliance), for the JD(S) in particular. To take the second point first, I think JD(S) was facing a kind of existential crisis. Anyway, it would have become extinct very soon and now by tying up with the BJP, it has only postponed its imminent end,” Narayana said.

The professor added that seamless transfer of votes from the BJP to JD(S) and vice versa was difficult.

“With respect to the 2024 elections, we have to look into the kind of votes JD(S) could get last time (2019 Lok Sabha polls). Whether the votes that they polled in the Old Mysuru region in eight or nine Lok Sabha constituencies, whether it adds up along with the BJP to give a kind of stiff competition to the Congress this time. JD(S) won only one seat but Hassan is not looking for the JD(S) this time. Now, even if you add JD(S) and BJP, if the Congress plays its cards well, then I don’t think its matter of worry for the Congress,” he said.

Narayana also pointed out that JD(S) MLAs hadn’t been happy with the tie-up with the saffron party since they stood to lose Muslim votes in their respective constituencies.

“Ever since the tie-up was announced, the rumblings within the JD(S) have increased. The MLAs are not happy and many people are on their way to join the Congress,” he said.

ATTEMPTING 'POLITICAL SUICIDE': PROFESSOR

Mysore University political science professor Muzaffar Assadi called the alliance an attempted 'political suicide' by the JD(S). He argued that Vokkaligas of Old Mysuru region weren’t mass BJP voters and the tie-up may hand the community’s votes to the saffron party.

“I would call it an attempted political suicide. One thing that we need to understand is that Vokkaligas are not large-scale supporters of the BJP. In case, they are trying to push BJP to the Vokkaliga platform, then it might become counter-productive. Vokkaligas might shift to the Congress or remain indifferent. Vokkaligas will not get anything out of this alliance except maybe two or three seats. They’ll probably get four tickets. We do not know how many they’ll win,” he said.

The professor pointed out that former CM S. Bangarappa had similarly ended up bringing the Ediga community to the BJP and Ramakrishna Hegde’s Lingayat voters had shifted to the BJP eventually because of his tie-up with the saffron party