Maldives in China’s clutches, India needs a rethink

Amid tensions with New Delhi over his ministers’ derogatory comments against Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu arrived in China.

This is in stark contrast to his predecessors who opted for an Indian visit first as per tradition.

But then, it is an open secret, Muizzu came to power last year on the plank of an anti-India campaign, and is pro-China.

The derogatory remarks are perhaps a reflection of deteriorating relations between the two nations reaching the tipping point.

In retrospect, after taking over as President, Muizzu formally requested New Delhi to withdraw its military personnel from the island country whose location in the Indian Ocean makes it strategically important to India.

While Muizzu is in China, many have warned him of China’s debt-trap policy, saying Male should know what happened to Sri Lanka which also relied heavily on Beijing for money but ultimately had to pay badly.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, who personally invited Muizzu, meanwhile held talks with his Maldivian counterpart after which the two countries signed 20 key agreements and elevated their bilateral ties to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership.

Muizzu also sought investments from Chinese companies for 11 projects at the Maldives Investment Forum.

The China Development Bank, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and the Export-Import Bank of China hold over 60 per cent of Maldives’ sovereign debt, as per a report of the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) published in November 2023.

The IMF in November 2023 said that the debt-carrying capacity of the Maldives remained weak and the island country was at a high risk of external debt distress.

Maldives’ total debt is set to remain high at over 115% of GDP, said another report by the World Bank in October 2023.

Maldives’ major source of revenue is tourism, but that is likely to take a hit after Indians have taken a strong view of Maldives ministers’ comments against India.

This may impact Maldives’ tourism revenue as Indians have been the top visitors to the island country. The Maldives Association of Tourism Industry (MATI) strongly condemned the derogatory comments.

According to data released by the Maldives Tourism Ministry earlier, India has remained the largest tourist market for the country in 2023.

The highest numbers of visitors to the Maldives were from India, with 209,198 arrivals, followed by Russia in second place with 209,146 arrivals, and China in third place with 187,118 arrivals.

In his address to the Maldives Business Forum in Fujian Province, Muizzu appealed to China to intensify efforts to send more tourists to his country, anticipating a backlash from India post-Modi remarks.

As a reference point, India now needs to seriously rethink its Maldives policy because the Island nation is firmly in the debt trap of China and deeply obligated to it, India’s acts of kindness, strategic help are no longer of significance to it, not even tourism perhaps.

Muizzu has conveniently forgotten that the defense cooperation between the two nations expanded over the past five years.

India had also announced, launched, and completed several infrastructure projects in the Maldives over the past few years to stop and reverse its drift toward China.

During the Covid crisis, India provided budgetary support to Maldives which was a unique gesture. But unfortunately Muizzu seems to have chosen to forget all that as he cosies up to China.