Take exit polls with a pinch of salt!

Bengaluru NT Bureau: Exit polls get in wrong sometimes due to a variety of reasons. These include the scale of resources required to carry out the exercise in India. Exit polls are based on surveys of voters conducted (by agencies) as they leave the polling booths.

Huge number of people are required to conduct the surveys and gather a sizeable sample size, the scarcity of which will lead to inaccuracy.

There is a short period of time to gather and submit results, which increases the likelihood of mistakes. The sample itself may be questionable as it may not represent all demographics and the elector may lie to the surveyor.

The times pollsters got it wrong

2004: BJP fell to number 2 after predicted victory

In 2004, PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee called for early elections. However, BJP finished with 138 Lok Sabha seats while National Democratic Alliance (NDA) managed 187 in all. Congress had finished with 145 seats while United Progressive Alliance (UPA) partners managed 216 in total.

The UPA formed the government with the Left. The exit polls had given the NDA 240 to 275 seats.

2015 Bihar: Grand Alliance defies hung Assembly forecast

Pollsters predicted that the BJP would finish as the largest party in Bihar with a hung Assembly in 2015. However, the RJD finished with 80 seats and allies JD(U) and Congress helped them cross the finish line with 158 seats in the 243 Assembly. BJP had got 53 seats.