Road to Net-Zero 2070

The Prime Minister’s bold commitment would lend much needed spine to policy planning on the energy front.

By M.A. Siraj

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement that India will achieve  net-zero carbon emission by 2070 at the  COP26 Glasgow Summit took everyone  by surprise. India has been pursuing  the target of ramping up the renewable energy capacity to 500 gigawatts  (GW) and bringing down its total carbon emissions by one billion tonnes by  2030. The sudden announcement has  raised umpteen eyebrows. Firstly, because New Delhi had for long argued  that principal blame for emissions  should lie with those who pioneered  industrialization, gained ascendancy  in matters of economic development  and came to discover the relationship  between industry-led development and  the threat it posed to the environment.  Secondly, it will inevitably attract  questions if the goal is achievable and,  if so, at what cost.

Any voluntary initiative to cut carbon emission by India should attract  cheers as the country is rated among  four principal polluters around the  world, the other three being China,  the United States and Russia. Most observers view India’s pledge with scepticism as no roadmap has been laid  out for measures that would attain the  target. Moreover, 2070 is too distant a  year, given the intensity of concern  and more ambitious plans by others in  compliance with the global target year  of 2050. What has drawn much appreciation is that the cut-off date marks  some advance from a nation that had  so far insisted on developed nations  reducing their emissions first, as they  were historically responsible for it. It is useful to be reminded that India despite being the third major Co2  emitter ranks very low on per capita  emission. But this may only provide  psychological satisfaction. On the  global level what counts is India’s  total contribution to the emission of  Green House Gases (GHG). Theory of  Climate-justice might prod us on to  burn coal and use other fossil fuels in  compensation for our late arrival on  the industrial scene. But there is no  gainsaying that there can be any compromise on the road to a sustainable  future for humanity.

The Prime Minister’s bold announcement therefore sets before the energy  policy planners a gargantuan task  i.e., to take the nation’s total installed  solar power capacity to over 5,600GW  to hit the net-zero target by 2070. This  would also presuppose bringing down  the usage of coal for power generation  by 99 per cent by 2060. As of now even  the 2030 target of achieving 500GW of  renewable energy looks like a tall order. Last August, the nation’s installed  renewable capacity stood at 100GW  which of course excludes hydropower.

The biggest villain of the piece  would be coal and its ties with India’s  thermal power plants. Of the total installed capacity thermal power plants  account for roughly 52% and other fossil fuels (diesel, lignite and gas) take  another 8% of it. India produced a record 700 million tons of coal in the last  fiscal ending March 31, 2021. Besides,  India’s coal imports currently stand at  235 million tons annually. Coal import  bill rose from Rs. 783 billion in 2011-12  to Rs. 1,115 billion in the last fiscal.  About half of this is considered nonsubstitutable. Ironically, coal is one the  top five commodities imported by India  even though India is also one among  the top producers of coal. In the backdrop of coal constituting nearly 70  per cent of India’s energy mix, Prime  Minister’s categorical pledge is an ambitious target.

According to Central Electricity  Authority (CEA) data, India currently  produces 103 billion units of power and  the requirement is projected to rise to  2,518 billion units by 2030. If renewable  energy were to be the source of 50% of  India’s power needs, the nation should  be planning 700GW of capacity instead  of 450GW as of now. At the current  pace of new installation of renewable  energy (solar, wind, tidal et al), India  may not attain the target as it currently stands at 96GW while another  80GW is under various stages of either  approval or bidding. The pace would  need to be enhanced to ensure deployment of 45GW capacity annually till  the remaining period of the decade.

But action on the carbon front also  has to take sectors such as agriculture,  construction and transportation, major energy guz