Recipe for Fragile Peace

All that can be immediately expected from the ceasefire reached between Hamas and Israel on January 17 is that the two sides would halt the violence. It does not ensure permanent peace but does provide a flicker of hope that the warring sides will proceed methodically to lay down a framework for durable peace. The deal stipulates three phases, each extending over 42 days during which the two sides will exchange hostages and prisoners under an agreed formula with priority for those who are females or are sick. Israeli forces would withdraw from populated areas to the edges of Gaza Strip.

Rafah Crossing will be opened after all Israeli women are released. Gazans will be allowed to the northern areas on a pedestrian route which will be widened gradually. Humanitarian aid will be allowed to enter Gaza. Talks for permanent ceasefire will begin on the 16th day of first phase and Israeli forces will withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor. In the third phase, the warring sides will exchange the bodies of the deceased hostages with bodies of dead fighters; more openings will be provided for movement of Gazans and a 5-7 year plan for reconstruction of Gaza will be implemented. With every next phase based on compliance with the compliance with conditions laid down in the preceding phase, there is skepticism if the deal would succeed in ushering permanent peace. Several such earlier attempts have proved abortive. The deal has come after 467 days of violence triggered by Hamas’ raid into Israeli territory killing nearly a thousand Israelis and taking around 250 hostages.

The disproportionately harsher retaliation since October 7, 2023 has killed over 46,000 Palestinians, two-thirds of them being women and children, levelled large swathes of Gazan habitations and decimated the civic infrastructure. While both sides have emerged extremely battered and shattered, stakes are high for the Benjamin Netanyahu government which has much to answer to its people as it failed to get the hostages freed and Hamas is far from vanquished.