Blaming climate change for tragedies is the ‘easy way’ out

As the devastating flash floods in Uttarkashi claimed lives and livelihoods yet again, experts flagged the failure to implement an integrated early warning system for the Himalayan region. They added that blaming climate change for such tragedies masks sys temic governance failures.

They demanded independent assessments to uncover the root causes of such tragedies and insist on accountability. Former Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences Dr Rajeevan reflected on past efforts to address such vulnerabilities and said an integrated early warning system for the whole Himalayan region was the need of the hour.

He proposed developing AI-driven now casting systems that integrate satellite imagery, lightning data, and radar inputs to predict cloudburst events with a 1-3 hour lead time, coupled with mobile alert systems for rapid dissemination. Himanshu Thakkar of the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers & People, echoed the need for technological ad vancements but stressed the importance of effective disaster management systems to act on early warnings.

The flash floods in Uttarkashi, particularly in areas like Dharali, were exacerbated by unplanned development, including the proliferation of hotels and homestays encroaching on river paths and the absence of policies to reduce constructions. Major projects like dams, hydropower plants, highways, railways, and urban centers contribute to environmental degradation by dumping muck into rivers, while schemes like riverfront developments and floodplain encroachments further constrict waterways.

With cloudbursts becoming more frequent in Uttarakhand, potentially linked to climate change, experts underscore the need for integrated flood management strategies to enhance resilience, especially in high-alti tude villages like Dharali. The 2013 Kedarnath disaster was triggered by more than 300 mm of rain in 24 hours as an early intense monsoon surge interacted with a western disturbance.

The extreme rainfall, combined with rapid snowmelt, breached the Moraine dam of Chorabari Lake, unleashing massive floods that killed around 5,700 people. On August 18, 2019, a cloudburst in Tikochi and Makudi villages in Uttarkashi’s Arakot region triggered flash floods and landslides, killing at least 19 people and affecting 38 villages.

In February 2021, the collapse of a hanging glacier caused a debris flow in the Ronti Gad stream, a tributary of Rishiganga, sweeping away two hydropower projects in Chamoli. Eighty bodies were recovered, and 204 people went missing. The Dharali disaster, experts say, shares features with the 2021 Chamoli tragedy.

A November 2023 study published in the Natural Hazards journal, analysing disaster data between 2020 and 2023, recorded 183 incidents in Uttarakhand during the monsoon months alone. Landslides accounted for 34.4 percent of these, flash floods 26.5 per cent and cloud bursts 14 per cent.

Time and again it has been proved that natural factors are worsened by human activity. Unregulated road building, hydropower projects, deforestation and construction of tourism infrastructure and settlements on unstable slopes or riverbanks have increased disaster risk.

Despite multiple expert reports, policy and enforcement have failed to match the scale of the threat. As Uttarakhand reels from yet another disaster, the question remains whether the warnings from scientists will finally be heeded in the corridors of power, before another tragedy strikes.