Bihar verdict: Impact could be much bigger

As Bihar moves rapidly towards the first phase of polling for the Assembly elections, due on November 6, all eyes are on whether the chief ministerial candidate of the Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress combine, Tejashwi Yadav, can upset the apple cart of the formidable National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the indomitable Nitish Kumar.

Though Nitish’s JD(U) has the backing of the BJP and its several allies including Chirag Paswan, the going no doubt is not easy this time; the NDA is facing severe anti-incumbency and the ageing Nitish is only a shadow of his former self compared to the youthful Tejashwi Yadav, who many say, holds out an instantaneous appeal to young voters.

While it is left to the voters of Bihar to decide whom to elect as their ruler for five years, the impact of the verdict would definitely not be restricted to Bihar alone. This is because Bihar is one of the larger states in the country and sends as many as 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha.

Nitish’s RJD currently has 12 MPs from the state and is one of the larger partners in the ruling NDA at the Centre. The impact is all the more being keenly watched because the BJP does not have a majority of its own in the Lok Sabha and is crucially dependent on the support of its allies to continue in power.

Other than the JD(U) with 12 seats, the BJP is also crucially reliant on Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP) with its sixteen Lok Sabha seats to stay in power in Delhi. There is also the Shiv Sena group owning allegiance to Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde with seven MPs and the half a dozen MPs who support the youthful Chirag Paswan.

Other than these parties, the BJP is crucially reliant on the support of several single member parties to shore up support in the Lok Sabha. The saffronists have been trying hard to hold together the NDA so that no party splits away and further reduces its support base.

The big question now is whether the Bihar electoral verdict will lead to a change of thinking among the coalition partners who are in power at the Centre. While the NDA is admittedly no pushover in Bihar with Nitish still ranking as the top most leader in the state, anti incumbency and the lure of a fresh face like Tejashwi could upset the political calculations of many analysts.

For Nitish himself, there are no permanent friends and enemies in politics - he was in an alliance with the RJD in 2015 and again in 2022 to form the Bihar government before he split away to tie up with the BJP and form a new government.

Political allegiances could change fast in a fluid situation and this is all the more likely when the ruling front at the Centre barely has a majority of around 20 seats with the Opposition INDIA block of parties breathing down its neck.

Anything is possible in politics; one can be sure that combinations and permutations are being feverishly worked out in several possible scenarios which could emerge after the poll verdict. Politics is a game of possibilities and any adverse verdict for those in power could lead to a big churning in national politics with the outcome anyone’s guess.