Davangere South bypoll: Cong faces rebel undercurrents; BJP eyes upset

Davangere

The high-stakes bypoll to the Davangere South Assembly constituency has turned into an unexpectedly tight contest, with the Congress grappling with internal dissent and the BJP sensing a rare opportunity to breach what has long been considered a Congress stronghold. The by-election, necessitated by the demise of veteran leader and sitting MLA Shamanur Shivashankarappa, comes at a time when the Congress is facing an unusual test of internal cohesion in a seat it has held uninterrupted since its formation in 2008.

Congress fortress under strain
Davangere South has historically been a bastion of the Congress, with Shivashankarappa winning successive elections since delimitation. However, the party’s decision to field Samarth Shamanur, grandson of the late leader and son of Minister SS Mallikarjun, has triggered discontent within sections of its traditional support base. The resentment is particularly visible among segments of the Muslim community, which constitutes a significant portion of the electorate.

With an estimated 70,000–80,000 Muslim voters in a total electorate of 2.32 lakh, their voting behaviour is widely seen as decisive. Local leaders had reportedly sought the party ticket citing their numerical strength, and the denial has led to murmurs of dissatisfaction. Although Congress leader Sadiq Pehlwan briefly rebelled after being denied a ticket, he has since withdrawn from the fray following intervention by senior party leadership and is now said to be campaigning for the official candidate. Despite efforts to consolidate support, ambiguity remains.

The recent visit of Minister BZ Zameer Ahmed Khan—considered influential among Muslim voters—was expected to reassure the community. While he publicly maintained that all was well within the party, locals claim his outreach lacked a clear appeal to support the Congress candidate. A Congress supporter, Sohail Ahmed, said that during an interaction with community members, the minister emphasized personal ties with SS Mallikarjun but stopped short of explicitly urging voters to back Samarth Shamanur.

Electoral arithmetic in focus
The constituency presents a complex social composition. Apart from Muslims, Scheduled Castes form another major voting bloc with around 36,000 voters, followed by Lingayats at approximately 34,000. Other communities, including STs, Kurubas and Marathas, also play a role in shaping the electoral outcome. While Muslim candidates have historically struggled to secure large vote shares—except in 2013 when a JD(S) candidate polled over 26,000 votes—the community’s consolidated voting pattern has often determined both victory and margin. In the last election, Shivashankarappa won by a margin of 27,888 votes.

BJP sensing an opening The BJP, which has traditionally relied on Lingayat support, is now attempting to expand its base by mobilising ST voters, with its candidate Srinivas Daskariyappa belonging to the ST community. Party strategists are also banking on a split in Muslim votes due to the presence of multiple candidates from the community. BJP leaders believe that even a partial shift or division—estimated at around 30,000 votes—could significantly alter the outcome in a closely fought contest. A departure from the past Unlike previous elections that largely saw one-sided victories for the Congress, the current bypoll has evolved into a competitive battle. Internal fissures within the Congress and a calculated push by the BJP have injected uncertainty into a constituency that once appeared politically predictable.

Mass campaign rally by Muslim leaders of  Congress in Basha Nagar

As the bypoll battle in the Davangere South Assembly constituency intensified, a massive public campaign rally was organized in Basha Nagar in support of Congress candidate Samarth Mallikarjun Shamanur. On the occasion, AICC General Secretary and Rajya Sabha MP Dr. Naseer Hussain, Chief Whip of the State Government and MLC Saleem Ahmed, MLA Rizwan Arshad, MLC Balkis Banu, MLA Yaseer Pathan, and All India Youth Congress National Secretary Syed Khalid Ahmed, along with several prominent Congress leaders, participated and sought votes.

In view of the by-election, the Congress party has devised a strategy to win voters’ confidence by conducting large public meetings in key areas alongside door-to-door campaigning. Hundreds of party workers and local leaders attended the gathering. The rally, held particularly to attract minority voters in Basha Nagar, has infused fresh enthusiasm within the Congress camp. Addressing the gathering, Naseer Hussain said, “The contribution of Shamanur Shivashankarappa’s family to the all-round development of Davangere is immense.

To continue this legacy and ensure further progress, people should support the Congress party.” Speaking at the event, Syed Khalid Ahmed urged voters to ensure the victory of Congress candidate Samarth Shamanur in this bypoll and appealed not to fall prey to the “communal strategies” of the BJP.