India’s El Niño challenge

The southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on June 4 after a three-day delay. That would normally not cause any worry. But this year is different due to the dreaded El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterised by the unusual warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming occurs when trade winds, which normally flow from east to west, either weaken or reverse direction. This alters global wind patterns and air pressure, suppressing monsoon activity in South Asia while causing heavy rain or drought in other parts of the world.

For India, this means longer dry spells, uneven rainfall distribution, and above-normal heatwave days. With the India Meteorological Department down grading its forecast to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), the nation faces an 84% combined probability of deficient or below-normal rainfall. Climatologists say this is not merely a statistical dip; it is a direct threat to India’s agricultural backbone and economic stability. (LPA is the average rainfall over a long period like 50 years, and combined probability is the total chance of any one of many outcomes happening.)

India’s farm economy is heavily dependent on the southwest monsoon, which delivers around 70% of the nation’s annual rainfall. Roughly half of all agricultural land is rainfed, lacking permanent irrigation. Besides, these areas account for nearly 40% of total food production. Pulses and oilseeds are especially vulnerable, with roughly 90% of their cultivation area being rainfed. A weak monsoon not only lowers crop yields but also increases the financial burden on farmers who end up spending more on irrigation, electricity, and fertilisers.

The monsoon is also vital for replenishing reservoirs. In response to these dire predictions, the Union Ministry of Agriculture has shifted into crisis mode. As many as 200 districts have been categorised as high risk based on rainfall forecasts and irrigation coverage. To cushion against supply shocks, the government has secured a record 4.3 million tonnes pulses buffer stock, more than double last year’s stock.

State governments are also implementing measures to alleviate farmers’ hardship. Jharkhand, for example, has approved an additional bonus of Rs 81 per 100 kg for paddy procurement and is preparing to expedite crop loss compensation. By all accounts, this year’s monsoon will test governance and resilience. Government plans are one thing, but execution is another. As the season progresses, priorities must shift to hyper-local communication, workable irrigation systems, and ensuring insurance backups reach the worst-hit farmers without delay. India’s farm output is a gamble even at the best of times. With El Niño holding the cards, administrations across the nation cannot afford complacency.