Bracing for the fourth wave

Nischith N | NT

With reports of a new Coronavirus sub variant XE being detected in Mumbai, and places such as Delhi, Haryana witnessing an increase in Covid-19 cases, Karnataka government is planning to step up its vigil at the airports. There are also reports of a spike in Covid-19 cases in South Korea, Germany, China, and five other countries.

This comes close on heels of state governments lifting Covid curbs, in the wake of fall in cases and fatalities. The new variant has once again sparked panic and anxiety among the people.

The state’s Technical Advisory Committee has, however, clarified that the present evidence does not suggest the presence of the new variant and there are still some doubts and concerns regarding the origin and transmissibility of this variant.

In a statement released by the state Health Minister Sudhakar’s office, “The new sub-variant of coronavirus BA.2 surfaced first in the Philippines and has spread to 40 countries. The agency which had predicted the third wave has again predicted the arrival of the fourth wave, and it may hit the country by August. However, there is no need panic as vaccination drives were effectively conducted in the state.”

According to the reports from the health department, as many as 10.25 crore doses have been given in the state and booster doses are also being provided.

The government is also trying to persuade parents to get their children, above the age o f 12 years, vaccinated.

Technical Advisory Chairman Dr M.K. Sudarshan told News Trail, “There is a study by IIT Kanpur that there will be a fourth wave and we should be cautious. They had earlier predicted the third wave.

International Health research comes under the Central Government, so we in Karnataka are planning to screen all passengers. Even though they have uploaded the vaccine certificate and have a negative report, they will be undergoing a fever check-up and syntagmatic screening. Also they will be monitored for seven days at home.”

A recent study conducted by IIT Kanpur’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics shows that the severity of the fourth wave will depend on the emergence of a possible new coronavirus variant, and vaccination status across the country. According to the study, the fourth wave of Covid-19 in India will arrive after 936 days from the initial data availability date, which is January 30, 2020. Therefore, the fourth wave starts from June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, and ends on October 24.

However, the researchers noted that there is always a fair chance that a possible new variant of coronavirus may have an intense impact on the whole analysis. The impact will depend on the various factors like the variant’s infectibility, fatality, etc. “Apart from this fact, the effect of vaccinations — first, second or booster dosage may also play a significant role on the possibility of infection, degree of infection and various issues related to the fourth wave,” the authors had said.

“We cannot comment at this point of time whether it will be effective or not because we don’t know about the variant. So people should follow the Covid protocol with 3 Cs like close face, close contact and crowded place because as of now we are testing only symptomatic people and there are chances of asymptomatic persons being infected. It is better that people should continue wearing masks,” Dr Sudarshan said. The technical committee has strongly recommended that people who have their second dose pending should get vaccinated.