By Rajiv Nayan
In November 2021, India started receiving S-400 Triumph Air Defence Missile systems, which it had purchased from Russia in 2016. The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) designates it as SA-21 Growler. This is a long-and medium-range surface-to-air missile system. The weapon was seen as being able to protect India’s air space, which is increasingly under risk of attack and intrusion.
Although claims and counterclaims regarding this weapon are made, even its rival acknowledges that it is one of the best defence systems in the world. American Patriot-3 (PAC-3) and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) are considered the main rivals of S-400. However, all weapon systems have their own characteristics, which could be useful for defending the possessor’s air space. Needless to add, all such systems have some inherent limitations.
As for the S-400, some try to see it only as an anti-aircraft missile. However, it is supposed to be effective in not only attacking and bringing down strategic and tactical aircraft but also in destroying cruise and ballistic missiles. There is a view that it is also militarily useful for destroying ground targets or installations. One of the Rand papers describes it as ‘a very high-performance High-altitude Missile Aerospace Defense System (HIMADS).’ Rand works in tandem with the United States Air Force.
The United States and European countries are apprehensive of hypersonic weapons, which may render Ballistic Missile Defence ineffective, and thus, the campaign is on to halt the hypersonic missiles race. Some experts claim that the S-400 is capable of neutralising even hypersonic weapons. That claim is subjective; the real test will come in the future.
Some Western experts underline some weaknesses of S-400 in tracking missiles or aircraft, and destroying them because of the nature of radar, which does not have the capability beyond ‘the horizon of the earth.’ Critics point out that in the absence of over the horizon radar, air defence becomes vulnerable to low-altitude operating cruise missiles, especially when there’s an attack where a large number of missiles are deployed.
S-400 weapons transactions between India and Russia amplify Moscow’s role as an important weapons seller to India. At the end of the Cold War, the world predicted diversification in weapons suppliers as the end of ideology would give a recipient or a buyer a choice to go beyond ideology or the ideology-based alliance to purchase any weapon. The global arms bazaar was expected to operate in a free market.
However, even in the initial years of the post-Cold War, this scenario was far from becoming reality. Largely because it was difficult for a buyer to switch over to an entirely new system, partly because of the way that the armed forces are trained in the use of one particular system even as the suspicions of the Cold War period continued to linger. But since the end of the twentieth century, there has been a change. The beginning of the twenty first century saw a greater realignment and diversification.
India also started showing the changing trend, even though during the Cold War, India had purchased some critical weapons such as military helicopters and fighter aircraft from Western countries. The pace of military cooperation, including acquisition of weapons, has exponentially increased in recent years. In the last three decades, an impression was created that Western countries, especially the US, would replace India’s dependence on Russia. India, it seems, has genuinely started diversifying its weapons acquisition, and in the process, it does not want to leave old ally Russia out.
Quite interestingly, S-400 succeeded in the one weapons category in which the US failed to make a breakthrough with India. The US was keen to sell its Best Missile Defense (BMD) system. However, India did not opt for the US system. Apart from showing its confidence in the Russian system, India preferred to design and develop its own BMD. The Indian indigenous system was successfully tested several times. The Russian weapon is designed to fill in the gap in the Indian air defence.
Quite significantly, India’s biggest military threat, China, has also acquired S-400 from Russia. Some differences are pointed out between the Indian and that of the Chinese S-400. Turkey is another important buyer, a member of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and an aspirant for the European Union.
Indian media and think tanks have been discussing the possibility of the imposition of sanction under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) enacted in 2017 to counter aggression of Russia, Iran and North Korea, along with other issues. The threat of US sanctions being imposed on India for ordering the S-400 system from Russia has in fact existed ever since the CAATSA had been enacted. Discussions have not ebbed, even after the delivery of S-400.
Could there be sanctions on India under CAATSA? It does not appear to be coming. Influential Senators and officials have been reminding the US Administration that doing so will adversely affect the security of India, which in turn is not good for the security interests of the US. More importantly, the imposition of sanctions will end the Quad, which is going to be the defining parameter of security in the Indo-Pacific. Sanctions on India will give the common adversary of the Quad, a decided edge.
In the final analysis, S-400 will embody the continuity and the change in India’s defence acquisition policy. Russia is a dependable ally for India, which is now transferring weapons with advanced technology, which, in some categories (including Integrated Air Defense systems), is at par with Western technology. However, it does not mean that this prevents India from purchasing weapons from the US or other Western countries. India should do both – acquire weapons from diverse sources even as it indigenously develops its munitions on the basis of its threat perception and preparedness.
(Rajiv Nayan is Senior Research Associate at the MP Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis, New Delhi)