Bypolls big boost for BJP

The outcome of the recent byelections can be interpreted as a major boost for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ruling the Centre. Of the three Lok Sabha seats, the party bagged two. And of the seven Assembly constituencies dispersed over a large swathe of geography, it took three.

Given the usefulness of byelections as barometers for assessing the midterm popularity and acceptance of the ruling dispensations between two general elections, it should be termed an impressive performance.

The party has vastly improved its footprints in Uttar Pradesh and Tripura. By bulldozing the Samajwadi Party (SP) bastions in Rampur and Azamgarh, the BJP has improved its tally of Lok Sabha seats by two from Uttar Pradesh. By bagging three of the four seats in Tripura it has signaled continued consolidation in the north-eastern state which will be going to polls in early 2023.

The Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) defeat in Sangrur, a seat vacated by current Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwanth Singh Mann, merely three months after its stunning victory in Punjab Assembly elections, is significant.

However, the AAP can console itself with victory in Rajinder Singh Nagar seat in Delhi which had fallen vacant following the resignation of Raghav Chaddha who was elected to the Rajya Sabha. The YSRCP’s victory by a huge margin in Atamkuru in Andhra Pradesh is indication enough that the appeal of the small regional party remains undimmed.

The Congress has retained its seats in Mandar in Jharkhand and a lone seat in Tripura thereby registering its continued relevance in two states. Rampur and Azamgarh are serious losses for the SP. Both were held by two stalwarts of the SP, i.e., Rampur by Azam Khan and Azamgarh by Akhilesh Yadav. They had vacated the seats after their election to the Assembly in last March. Rampur, a Muslim majority (58%) seat had been a SP bastion for nearly two decades. BJP’s Ghanshyam Lodhi bagged the seat by over 42,000 votes.

In Azamgarh, the SP’s defeat at the hands of the BJP candidate could be attributed to the presence of a Muslim candidate, Guddu Jamali, by the Bahujan Samaj Party who won over two lakh votes. However, the major surprise was in the Sangrur Lok Sabha seat which has been bagged by former Khalistan activist Simaranjit Singh Mann who heads the breakaway faction of Akali Dal known as Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar). Mann, a former IPS office, had been away from the political limelight for nearly 25 years.

His return should naturally lead to questions if radicalism is regaining ground in Punjab, three decades after it was stamped out lock, stock and barrel. Byelections for four seats in Tripura were necessitated as the new Chief Minister Manik Saha needed to be an MLA to continue as CM.

By winning three of the four seats, the BJP has powerfully endorsed its hold over the State. Congress has just entered the house by winning the lone seat of Agartala. It had no seat prior to this in the 60-member House where the Communist Party of India (Marxist) has been the principal opposition with 15 seats. The fact that the CPI(M) did not field its candidates signals an alliance or understanding for Assembly polls in the state early next year.