B’luru weather turns erratic as Super El Niño intensifies

BENGALURU

The city has been experiencing unpredictable weather this year. It has recorded below-normal monsoon rainfall and one of the driest retreating monsoons in recent history. Recent rains in the city have been attributed to the northeast monsoon and a lowpressure system over the Arabian Sea.

While climate change can be blamed as a driving force behind this unpredictability, scientists have also pointed to an intense and prolonged El Niño developing this year, dubbed a ‘Super El Niño’.

Prominent geologist C.P. Rajendran explained, “As the trade winds blow, they also push warm water across the Pacific Ocean. This helps move the warm water towards this region, while the trade winds also push it towards the west coast of Africa. During El Niño, however, the trade winds weaken. As a result, they are unable to push the warm water towards the west coast of Africa.

During the opposite phase, the trade winds gather strength.” While El Niño occurs cyclically, this year’s event is reportedly more intense, with temperatures around 2 degrees celsius above the longterm average. The effects are being felt across the globe, including in India and Bengaluru.

“El Niño doesn’t just affect Bengaluru; it affects the entire region,” said Latha Sridhar of the Meteorological Department. According to scientists, the weather system has contributed to rainfall deficits, affecting crops and water supplies across the country.

For southern India, including Bengaluru, this has meant a drier monsoon and retreating monsoon, although other weather systems have provided some relief. However, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole has blunted some of El Niño’s effects, bringing rain to the region. With global warming also playing a role, weather patterns are likely to become increasingly difficult to predict.

“So now, because of global warming and human activities, there is an additional contributing factor. This is something we will have to watch to see how it plays out. Generally speaking, the climate is going to become totally unpredictable. It could be drier or wetter, depending on various factors,” said Rajendran. 

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently stated that El Niño was set to strengthen through December this year, with implications for economies, ecosystems and communities across the globe.

“El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly. WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially making it one of the strongest since at least 1950,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.